Monetary and credit trends as of June 1, 2015

The average ruble monetary base for January-May 2015 amounted to 37.8 trillion rubles. Compared to January to May 2014, it increased by 16%. In May of 2015, its volume amounted to 39.6 trillion rubles, having increased from the beginning of the year to 3.4 trillion rubles, or 9.3%, while in May the average growth of the ruble monetary base amounted to 2.8 trillion rubles (Figure 1).
 

Figure 1

PERFORMANCE CHANGES
in ruble monetary base in 2015

Ruble monetary base, billion rubles (the left scale)
Growth rate, % (the right scale)


The average ruble money supply from the beginning of the year grew by 3.3 trillion rubles, or by 3.7% and amounted to 92.4 trillion rubles. Compared to January - May 2014, it increased by 12.6%. In May 2015, the average amount of the ruble money supply reached 98.1 trillion rubles.

The main factors that influenced the rise in the average ruble money supply in May 2015 were immediate and transferable public deposits, cash (Figure 2).
 

Figure 2
   
CHANGES IN INDICATORS
of the average of the ruble money supply in May 2015
(billion rubles)

Cash in circulation
Transferable deposits of natural persons
Transferable deposits of legal entities
Term deposits of natural persons
Term deposits of legal entities
Securities issued by banks (outside bank turnover)

The average broad money supply since the beginning of 2015 increased by 55.9 trillion rubles, or by 25.9% and amounted to 271.1 trillion rubles. Compared to January - May 2014, it increased by 35.5%. During May 2015, its growth amounted to 1.9 trillion rubles, or 0.7%.

The currency component of broad money supply in May increased by 97.5 million US dollars, or 0.8%. In May 2015, the share of ruble component in broad money supply decreased by 0.2%age points to 34.7%.

Currency market. In May 2015, households sold 150.7 million USD on a net basis (in April 2015 – $249.6m).

In May 2015, resident economic entities purchased foreign currency in the amount of $91.9 million on net basis (Figure 3).
 

Figure 3

CURRENCY PURCHASE AND SALE BALANCE
on the domestic foreign exchange market
(million USD)

Households
Resident economic entities


The daily mandatory sale of foreign exchange averaged $32.4 million in May 2015(in April 2015 - $31.8 million).

In May 2015, according to preliminary data, economic entities bought foreign currency at the exchange and over-the-counter markets mainly with objectives to repay foreign exchange loans, (38.1% of the exchange bought), pay for fuel and energy resources (13.2%), purchase raw materials (13.2%) and to pay for equipment and components (8.7%).

International reserve assets. According to preliminary data, the international reserve assets of Belarus, calculated in compliance with international standards, amounted to 4.6 billion US dollars as of June 2015 (Figure 4).
 

Figure 4

DYNAMICS
of international reserve assets in accordance with IMF methodology
(million USD)


 

In May 2015, the volume of gold and foreign reserve assets increased by 36.2 million US dollars. At the same time, in May 2015, the Government of the Republic of Belarus and the National Bank have fulfilled their internal and external obligations in foreign currency in full.

Exchange rate. The value of the foreign currency basket1 for May increased by 1.6% and on June 1, 2015 amounted to 3, 123 rubles (Figure 5)
 

Figure 5

DYNAMICS
of the foreign currency basket value


 

Over May 2015, the official rate of the Belarusian ruble dropped against the Russian ruble by 0.9%, amounting to 283 rubles per 1 Russian ruble, against the US dollar - by 2.3%, amounting to 14 810 rubles, against the euro - by 1.7%, amounting to 16,180 rubles2 (Figure 6).
 

Figure 6

DYNAMICS
of changes in the BYR official exchange rate on the first day of the month
(%)

BYR monthly changes in the official exchange rate against the US dollar
BYR monthly changes in the official exchange rate against the euro
BYR monthly changes in the official exchange rate against the Russian ruble


Year to date, the official BYR exchange rate in relation to foreign currencies and foreign currency basket were as follows: it dropped by 23.8% against the basket, against the US dollar - by 25%, against the euro - by 12.5%, against the Russian ruble - by 31.9%.

Interest rates and liquidity of the banking system. In the field of interest-rate policy, the National Bank kept the focus at setting a level of interest rates which would ensure the financial and macroeconomic stability and slowdown in inflation.

In May 2015, the refinancing rate remained at 25% per annum.

In May 2015, the liquidity supply rates (overnight credits, swap transactions), which form the upper limit of the interest rate corridor, remained at 35% per annum. Liquidity withdrawal rates forming the lower boundary (overnight deposit) remained at 20% per annum3.

The monthly rate of the daily interbank market averaged 25.5% per annum (Figure 7).
 

Figure 7

DYNAMICS
of interest rates on the operations of the National Bank of Belarus
(% per annum per annum)


Overnight credit rate
Refinancing rate
 

Overnight deposit rate
Daily interbank credit market rate


The National Bank regulated the bank liquidity via standard operations (permanently available deposits and open market operations). 

Deposit and credit markets interest rates. In May 2015 the deposit market interest rates in the national currency decreased, in foreign currency – slightly increased (Figure 8). 
 

Figure 8

DYNAMICS
of interest rates
(% per annum)

New ruble time deposits
Daily interbank market
New ruble bank credits
Refinancing rate


In May 2015 the interest rate of new ruble time deposits averaged 26.1% per annum.

In May 2015 the interest rate of natural persons’ new ruble time deposits averaged 28% per annum, having decreased in May by 8.5% age points.

In May 2015 the interest rate of legal persons’ new ruble time deposits averaged 24.5% per annum, dropping during the month by 1.8% age points.

In May 2015 the credit market rates changed (table 1). The interest rate for BYR new loans4 averaged 42.7% per annum, declining during the month by 0.9% age points.

In May 2015, the interest rate on new freely convertible currency12 averaged 10.5% per annum (table 1).
 

Table 1

AVERAGE RATES
On the deposit and credit markets
(% per annum)

 
2015

Monthly change

Change year to date

April
May
New ruble time deposits
30,7
26,1
-4,6
-7,3

legal persons

26,3
24,5
-1,8
-8,0

natural persons

36,5
28,0
-8,5
-7,6
New hard currency term deposits
6,0
5,9
-0,1
1,0

natural persons

6,1
6,3
0,2
1,4
New BYR bank credits12
43,6
42,7
-0,9
1,7

legal persons

44,3
43,4
-0,9
11,8

natural persons

39,0
37,8
-1,2
9,5
New hard currency credits for legal persons12
10,2
10,5
0,3
0,9


Bank assets (liabilities).
Assets of banks on June 1, 2015 amounted to 547.1 trillion rubles and rose to 2.1% or 11.5 trillion rubles in May 2015. The ratio of average total assets to GDP in annual terms was 65.8%in April 2015 (Figure 9).
 

Figure 9

BANK ASSETS DYNAMICS

trillion rubles
%
Bank assets (the left axis)
Bank assets to GDP (the right axis)


Banks’ claims on residents5 for May 2015 increased by 1.8%, or 8.9 trillion rubles.

In May 2015, Banks' claims on the economy increased by 4.4 trillion rubles, or 1.2%. Since the beginning of 2015 they increased by 11.5%, or 39.9 trillion rubles.

In May 2015, claims of banks and JSC “Development Bank of the Republic of Belarus” on the economy increased by 5.4 trillion rubles, or 1.3%. In may 2015, claims in the national currency increased by 52.1 billion rubles, and in foreign currency - increased by 5.3 trillion rubles, or 6,6 million US dollars equivalent.

Since the start of 2015, claims of banks and JSC “Development Bank of the Republic of Belarus” rose by 43.2 billion rubles, or by 11.8 per cent (according to aggregative estimates of the BYR rates to the US dollar, euro and Russian ruble on January 1, 2015, they increased by 4.1 billion rubles, or 1.1%).

Compared with GDP, corporate lending performed at faster pace. Thus, in January -April 2015 compared to January - April of 2014, real GDP fell by 2.6%, while claims of banks and JSC "Development Bank of the Republic of Belarus” on the economy grew in real terms over the period on average by 9.8% (against the relevant period).

As of June 1, 2015, with respect to the beginning of the year, there was a decline in the share of claims on natural persons in bank assets structure and an increase in all other fund allocation are as excluding claims on resident economic entities whose share remained unchanged (Figure 10).
 

Figure 10

STRUCTURE
off bank active operations
(%)

Claims on resident economic entities
Claims on natural persons
Claims on bodies of state administration
Claims on the National Bank
Claims on non-residents
Other fund allocation areas


As of June 1, 2015, there was an increase in the share of natural persons and non-residents in the bank liabilities structure. At the same time the share of bodies of state administration, banking system, and resident economic entities as well as banks’ own capital decreased (Figure 11).
 

Figure 11

BANK LIABILITIES STRUCTURE

Funds of bodies of state administration
Funds of banking system
Funds of resident economic entities
Funds of natural persons
Funds of non-residents
Banks’ own capital
Other liabilities

 


1 The currency basket value is calculated as the weighted geometric average of the two-way exchange rates of the Belarusian ruble against the US dollar (USD), the euro (EUR) and the Russian ruble (RUB), with the weights being 0.3, 0.3 and 0.4 respectively, i.e., the currency basket value is calculated as the product of the values of the exchange rates of the Belarusian ruble against the US dollar to the power of 0.3, the euro to the power of 0.3, and the Russian ruble to the power of 0.4.

2 The exchange rate data is provided according to the National Bank’s survey.

3 Since June 1, 2015 - 18% per annum.

4 Excluding soft credits provided according to decisions of the President of the Republic of Belarus, Government of the Republic of Belarus.

5 Banks’ claims on residents include banks’ claims on the economy, bodies of state administration, banks and the National Bank.

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Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Belarus